Eurovision 2014 final is today, and what I can tell you -- this year seems too complicated to favor one particular song, since most of them are very good and will make a decent win tonight (today, depends where you are watching).
So, from my 20 favorites from the semifinals I scored 80% right (not so bad, I say to myself), but making a prediction on WHO will win, is a different story. I can't tell, just because: I don't know.
What I can tell you is, who I THINK can maybe win tonite.
I think the winner will be among these: Armenia, Austria, Hungary, the Netherlands, and Sweden. I don't like it, it's way too broad. But rounding up to 5 seems fair, just because I like odd numbers, and this only is my thinking... it'll depend at last on how Europe votes.
I think Spain and the UK will be the great performers among the big 5.
An songs that I totally LIKE, from Switzerland, Finland, Greece, Romania , Malta, France and San Marino will be well placed, but not enough to win. Why? The 3 known factors: block voting (mainly, ex-USSR countries and the like, the Balkans and Eastern Europe and the Nordic countries), the time of performance (1st half vs. 2nd half), and the geo-political and diaspora vote.
For this last reason, I see Ukraine scratching better votes this year, because of all the Crimea thing; same reason why, even though they have a KILLER song (the best in years), Russia will not be very well loved in 2014.
So, who's your favorite to win?
This is the running order for the Final:
- San Marino
- United Kingdom
:: Shaken not stirren