Friday, May 9, 2014

Eurovision 2014 Final...

SO, AT LAST, IT HAS BECOME THE DAY.

Eurovision 2014 final is today, and what I can tell you -- this year seems too complicated to favor one particular song, since most of them are very good and will make a decent win tonight (today, depends where you are watching).

So, from my 20 favorites from the semifinals I scored 80% right (not so bad, I say to myself), but making a prediction on WHO will win, is a different story. I can't tell, just because: I don't know.

What I can tell you is, who I THINK can maybe win tonite.

I think the winner will be among these: Armenia, Austria, Hungary, the Netherlands, and Sweden. I don't like it, it's way too broad. But rounding up to 5 seems fair, just because I like odd numbers, and this only is my thinking... it'll depend at last on how Europe votes.

I think Spain and the UK will be the great performers among the big 5.

An songs that I totally LIKE, from Switzerland, Finland, Greece, Romania , Malta, France and San Marino will be well placed, but not enough to win. Why? The 3 known factors: block voting (mainly, ex-USSR countries and the like, the Balkans and Eastern Europe and the Nordic countries), the time of performance (1st half vs. 2nd half), and the geo-political and diaspora vote.

For this last reason, I see Ukraine scratching better votes this year, because of all the Crimea thing; same reason why, even though they have a KILLER song (the best in years), Russia will not be very well loved in 2014.

So, who's your favorite to win?

This is the running order for the Final:

  1. Ukraine
  2. Belarus
  3. Azerbaijan
  4. Iceland
  5. Norway
  6. Romania
  7. Armenia
  8. Montenegro
  9. Poland
  10. Greece
  11. Austria
  12. Germany
  13. Sweden
  14. France
  15. Russia
  16. Italy
  17. Slovenia
  18. Finland
  19. Spain
  20. Switzerland
  21. Hungary
  22. Malta
  23. Denmark
  24. Netherlands
  25. San Marino
  26. United Kingdom



:: Shaken not stirren